Working Papers or in progress

  1. [] Exchange Rate Predictability and Financial Conditions
    with Xiao Lu
    This version: Sep 2025   Download

  2. [] Nowcasting in a data-poor environment: A monthly real GDP index for the province of Alberta
    with Aldi Pollozhani
    In progress.

  3. [] Women on the Margins: Gendered Effects of Large Minimum Wage Changes in Canada
    with J. Marchand
    In progress.

  4. [] Oil Price Shocks and Real-Time US Output Growth Density Forecasts
    In progress.

  5. [] A Test for State-Dependent Predictive Ability based on a Markov-Switching Framework
    This version: May 2018   Download

 

Publications

  1. [] When ‘Eyes on the Street’ Are Not Enough: Insights from Itinerant Street Markets
    with C. Díaz & N. Trajtenberg
    Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2025
    Working paper (June 2025):   PDF

  2. [] The Heterogeneous Effects of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Crime across the World
    with N. Trajtenberg, C. Díaz, & many others
    Crime Science, 2024

  3. [] First to $15: Alberta's Minimum Wage Policy on Employment by Wages, Ages, and Places
    with J. Marchand
    ILR Review, 2024
    Working paper (July 2023):   PDF

  4. [] Stay at home if you can: COVID-19 stay-at-home guidelines and local crime
    with C. Díaz & N. Trajtenberg
    Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, 2022
    Working paper (September 2022):   PDF   Appendix

  5. [] Output Growth and Structural Reform in Latin America: Have Business Cycles Changed?
    Contemporary Economic Policy, 2017
    Working paper (February 2016):   PDF

  6. [] Dating US Business Cycles with Macro Factors
    Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2016
    Working paper (December 2015):   PDF   Data & Code

  7. [] Forecasting US Recessions with Macro Factors
    Applied Economics, 2015
    Working paper (May 2015):   PDF   Data & Code

  8. [] Unit Root Testing with Stationary Covariates and a Structural Break in the Trend Function
    Journal of Time Series Analysis, 2013
    Working paper (January 2013):   PDF   Code

  9. [] Covariate Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power
    Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 2012
    Working paper (May 2011):   PDF   Data & Code

  10. [] Regional and International Market Integration of a Small Open Economy
    with F. Lorenzo & C.M. Rodríguez
    Journal of Applied Economics, 2007

 

Last update to this page: 09/2025