Table 1. Sample of datapoints used for this project.

Latitude	Longitude	Elevation	MAT	MAP	T_DJF	T_MAM	T_JJA	T_SON	Prep_DJF	Prep_MAM	Prep_JJA	Prep_SON	Biome
32.703168	-114.898077	59	22.6	62	13.5	21.4	31.8	23.7	23	6	15	18	Deserts_and_Xeric_Shrublands
32.703168	-114.812674	54	22.5	66	13.4	21.3	31.8	23.6	25	6	16	19	Deserts_and_Xeric_Shrublands
32.631303	-115.568777	0	22.3	119	13.7	20.5	31	23.5	74	35	18	34	Deserts_and_Xeric_Shrublands
32.631303	-115.483443	2	22.4	88	13.6	20.7	31.3	23.6	54	21	16	28	Deserts_and_Xeric_Shrublands
32.631303	-115.398108	8	22.6	71	13.5	20.9	31.6	23.7	38	11	14	24	Deserts_and_Xeric_Shrublands
32.631303	-115.312773	10	22.7	61	13.4	21.1	31.9	23.8	29	7	14	21	Deserts_and_Xeric_Shrublands
32.631303	-115.227439	18	22.8	55	13.5	21.3	32.2	23.9	24	6	13	18	Deserts_and_Xeric_Shrublands
32.631303	-115.142104	23	22.8	53	13.6	21.4	32.3	24	21	5	12	17	Deserts_and_Xeric_Shrublands
32.631303	-115.056769	16	22.9	55	13.7	21.5	32.2	23.9	20	5	12	16	Deserts_and_Xeric_Shrublands
32.631303	-114.971435	21	22.8	57	13.9	21.5	32.1	24	20	5	13	17	Deserts_and_Xeric_Shrublands
32.631303	-114.8861	27	22.7	62	13.8	21.5	32	23.9	22	5	13	17	Deserts_and_Xeric_Shrublands
32.631303	-114.800766	32	22.6	65	13.7	21.4	31.9	23.9	23	6	15	18	Deserts_and_Xeric_Shrublands
32.559437	-116.750023	180	17.6	298	13.6	21.4	31.8	23.8	24	6	15	18	Deserts_and_Xeric_Shrublands
32.559437	-116.664757	550	16.2	384	12.6	15.4	23.1	19.3	147	88	8	56	Deserts_and_Xeric_Shrublands
32.559437	-116.57949	568	16.1	389	10.9	14	22.2	17.7	189	113	13	68	Deserts_and_Xeric_Shrublands

 

Data exploration

By using the biomes defined by Olson as a reference for analyzing the relationship between the different variables, we can see that the presence of many biomes is dependent on the interaction between many of these variables, such as MAT and MAP.

For example, in figure 3, we see that at low temperatures, the difference between the existence of a biome of the type of Temperate Broadleaf and Mixed Forests or one of the type of Montane Grasslands and Shrublands has to do with levels of precipitation. On the other hand, we see that although Tropical and Subtropical Coniferous Forests and Tropical and Subtropical Dry Broadleaf Forests experience similar levels of precipitation, their presence is dependent on the ranges of temperature, with the Tropical and Subtropical Dry Broadleaf Forests having a higher range of temperature. At high temperatures, we see that the type of biome depends on the levels of precipitation. At high levels of precipitation, we can find Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forests; with lower values of precipitation we can find Tropical Grasslands Savannas and Shrublands, and with the lowest values of precipitation the most likely biome is going to be Deserts and Xeric Shrublands.

Figure 3. Relationship between mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation expressed in a logarithmic scale for the biomes of the Neotropic.

It is because of this fragile relationship between climatic variables, that climate change represents a real threat to the existence of many of these ecosystems and biomes. In Figure 4, we can see that the prediction for most of these biomes is an increment in temperature although not of the same magnitude for all of them. On the other hand, not all biomes will experience the same changes in precipitation, some will experience increases, but the most of them will experience reductions in precipitation.

Figure 4. Projected changes in temperature and precipitation for the year 2050 for the biomes of the Neotropic.

The most likely outcome is that climate change will affect the delicate balance between these climatic variables and that have produced the great diversity of ecosystems and biomes that characterize the Neotropics, causing many of them to shift to the poles or higher to the mountains.