University of Alberta Edmonton, Canada 18 April 1997

"Demography is not necessarily destiny"

Michael Adams, pollster and author, sees highly individualized population emerging

By Michael Robb

Canadians know roughly how many five-year-olds are going to enter Grade 1 next year, and they know roughly how many people are going to die in the same year. What happens between those two milestones is increasingly difficult to predict, says Michael Adams, the author of Sex in the Snow: Canadian Social Values at the End of the Millennium.

Demography is not necessarily destiny, says the President of Environics Research Group Ltd. and one of the speakers at the Faculty of Extension's open house last weekend.

Once factors such as gender, age and economic status determined so much, he explains. Now, people are making choices that are no longer as predictable as they once were. Take, for example, a 50-year-old man. He could be changing careers or retired, a grandfather or a recent father.

Tracing the evolution of Canadians' social values over the last few decades, Adams says the most profound change has been the country's citizens' increasing desire to take control over their own lives. They're no longer relying on the corporate, political

and religious institutions to take care of them. "Increasingly, their lives and opportunities are being shaped by their own attitudes and the voluntary associations, networks and projects they initiate themselves," says one of the country's leading pollsters. "More people are saying 'I'm master of my own destiny.'"

In a free-wheeling interview with Folio, Adams painted an optimistic picture of Canadians' future. There's no doubt that many Canadians are rejecting traditional notions of community and family and adopting more personal control and autonomy. They are becoming increasingly connected to virtual communities around the world. That attachment to a diversity of communities will stand Canadians in good stead in a world constantly changing.

Adams wrote the book to describe the psychological landscape of the country in a way that will help Canadians understand their friends, co-workers, parents, children and spouses. He describes three major groups: elders, baby boomers and gen xers. Within the elders are three groups: extroverted traditionalists, rational traditionalists and cosmopolitan modernists. Within the baby boomers are four groups: anxious communitarians, disengaged Darwinists, connected enthusiasts and autonomous rebels. Among the gen xers are five groups: thrill-seeking materialists, aimless dependents, social hedonists, new Aquarians and autonomous post-materialists. To each, Adams ascribes a set of social values and characteristics.

Generally, Adams is optimistic about the nation's future and rejects the notion that the emerging society will be nightmarish. He does warn, however, that there will be losers among some of these groups. For example, the progressive tribes will face reactionary and dangerous opponents still looking for a leader, an ideology and a god. "The lives of the more marginal members of these groups will often be nasty, brutish and shorter, because they will be the losers in a world in which the safety net has

many holes, if it exists at all." Baby boomers, too, will have to adjust to the loss of their pre-eminent place in Canadian society. Gen xers have computer skills baby boomers do not,

for example, but they will still share core values.

Canadians are part of an increasingly global culture, in which nation-state boundaries are becoming less and less relevant. Sovereignty is being ceded to larger, global institutions and to individuals. Canadian institutions, however, are lagging behind social changes. They'll either adapt or end up like Eatons, unable to change to meet the challenges, says Adams. Political parties are not engaging people-people who are less concerned about ideology. Culture is no longer being universally defined by elites in Canada.

All these changes will have an impact on leadership, Adams explains. Canadians with multiple identities will choose to get involved very selectively. Leadership will come from many people, not just a few. Some will choose to lead specific projects. No longer motivated by guilt and fear, more Canadians will not defer to leaders. This, in fact, will represent an expansion of human capital, he argues, and result in less hierarchical structures. More creative energy will be released.

"The evolution of social values in Canada is a winding journey from the death of God and traditional notions of family and community, to a highly individualistic population focused on personal control and autonomy, to a now embryonic but fast-growing sense of human interconnectedness with technology and nature," he explains. "These developments are natural extensions of our efforts to transcend the traditional demographic characteristics that defined and often limited the paths we followed in our lives. I believe we are at the dawn, not the end of civilization."

Folio front page

Office of Public Affairs

University of Alberta