University of Alberta Edmonton, Canada 18 April 1997

Workerless future, or futureless work?

By Lee Elliott

The bad news is . . . the future of work probably doesn't include the leisure-filled life 60's futurists predicted we'd have by now. The good news is that we control the future of work.

Dr. Graham Lowe, sociology, says "Canada is at a critical juncture in terms of its economic life." Yet contrary to much of what you read in futuristic literature, he says, we can shape the future of work. Most trends, except demographic trends, are within our control.

Lowe says we are in the "age of economic anxiety." Recent surveys show 44 per cent of Canadians are worried about job loss; 40 per cent feel a loss of control over their future; and the vast majority cite unemployment as their number one concern.

Recent labour and economic changes have been wrenching, he says, but not as bad as public opinion poll anxiety suggests. Lowe says the anxiety is prevalent throughout the industrialized world and is partly a response to the market-oriented economic agenda.

Popular futurist literature, which ranges from the pessimistic to the wildly utopian, feeds the anxiety, he says. Popular writers like Jeremy Rifkin, The End of Work, predict a "technology not people" scenario, a workerless world. While others such as William Bridges, Job Shift, "see a really rosy future if you have the right attitude, if you have the right skills and if you have the right entrepreneurial spirit." There will be work, just not jobs in the traditional sense.

Lowe describes a third view as "almost business as usual." This is the view of many governments and economists, he says. They suggest only fine tuning is needed for a system that already hums. All three views are largely based on speculation and either wrongly suggest trends are predetermined, or that new work strategies are unnecessary.

Lowe's research with Gordon Betcherman of Canadian Policy Research Networks Inc.-The Future of Work in Canada-A Synthesis Report- has caught the attention of Paul Martin, federal finance minister Lowe says, "I wouldn't however, leave it [the future] in the hands of traditional leaders."

He calls instead for extensive public debate to seek solutions to six Canadian trends he feels have disturbing implications if they aren't addressed:

• persistently high unemployment;
• underemployment in the context of rising educational levels;
• the spread of non-standard forms of work;
• the polarization of incomes, job conditions and work hours;
• earnings stagnation that forestalls improvements in living standards; and
• new management strategies that redefine the nature of the employment relationship.

"On their own, none of the trends point to a revolution in the workplace," says Lowe. "But if you put the sum together . . . that amounts to a big shake up in the workplace."

The uncertainty created by changes in the workplace is heightened by the loss or erosion of traditional "anchors" which helped Canadians adjust to post-war economic upheaval, he says.

Lowe is quick to say he doesn't have the answers, although he says he knows they don't lie in either strictly market-based solutions or a return to big government. But the search for answers will have to include a fresh look at refocusing monetary and fiscal policy; redistributing work; education and training; and worker representation.

Lowe outlined the findings of his latest research at a staff professional development day April 10 in the Stollery Centre. Copies of The Future of Work in Canada-A Synthesis Report are available from Renouf Publishing Company Ltd., 5369 Canotek Road, Ottawa, ON K1J 9J3.

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