1996/97 PCERII Funded Research Abstract
Research Title: The Migration of Highly-Qualified Personnel and Economic Growth in the Prairie Regions
Research Team:
(University of Winnipeg) - Principal Investigator
Research Domain(s): Economic
Canadian immigration policy has recently placed greater emphasis upon the recruitment of "highly-qualified personnel" (HQP). In a "knowledge-based" global economy, scientific research as a vehicle for sustaining economic growth has attracted increasing attention. "New growth theory" has rekindled interest in the relationship between scientific research, innovation and growth. If the scientific knowledge that generates innovation and economic "spillovers" is "embodied" in human capital, then the migration of HQP facilitates the international transfer of technology. This research project examines the determinants of immigration of HQP to Canada and the prairie region in particular, and the capacity of the prairie region to create a climate conducive to attracting scientific and engineering HQP.
The international flow of HQP attracted widespread attention in the 1960s and early 1970s. Rising demand for HQP triggered a large migration to the United States and fears of a "brain drain" (Bhagwati, 1976). Canada occupied a unique position as both a major importer and exporter of human capital. "Dynamic shortages" in the domestic labour market led to a "carefully controlled" inflow of HQP (DeVortez and Maki, 1983); at the same time, however, Canada witnessed a significant outflow of HQP to the United States (Green, 1976; Grubel and Scott (1976).
During the global recession of the 1970s the net outflow of migrants to the United States declined. But in an era of free trade, the mobility of HQP across national boundaries is likely to increase. Concurrently, the greater emphasis in immigration policy upon family reunification, refugees and entrepreneurs suggests that the outflow of HQP from Canada may not be matched by an inflow from the rest of the world (Coulson and DeVoretz, 1993; DeVoretz, 1995). This makes it prescient to ascertain the determinants of international and interregional flows of HQP in order to determine if there is a sufficient supply to permit an optimal level of R&D in the prairie region.
Our intention is to examine three issues as they concern the prairie region: 1) trends
in the stock of, and the pattern of international and interregional migration, of HQP in
the prairie region;
2) the dynamics of the market for HQP, or the determinants of immigration; and 3) the
policy measures appropriate to ensure an adequate supply of HQP and an optimal level of
R&D.
Published data on the "stock" and "flow" of HQP in Canada has several shortcomings (Grant and Benarroch, 1995). International migration statistics are "highly misleading .… because they do not include information about return-migration or the place where the skilled person received his education" (Grubel and Scott, 1976:3). Our first objective, then, is to assess the quality of available data in order to construct a profile of HQP by comparing data from Statistics Canada and the Department of Citizenship and Immigration Canada. This data can be augmented with data on Canadian HQP emigrating to the United States, drawn from the U.S. National Science Foundation’s "Data System on Scientists and Engineers" and American Men and Women of Science.
The determinants of immigration are to be examined using current econometric techniques. Models that analyse the flow of HQP between countries distinguish between short-term migration caused by swings in the business cycle, and long-term, secular trends; and between "pull" and "push" factors (Wilkinson, 1970). Borjas (1988) emphasizes the "sorting" of potential migrants among countries. Using Census data, he estimates the flow of immigrants according to the expected income in the country of source and destination, and other socioeconomic characteristics.
The justification for government policy with respect to the migration of HQP rests on the argument that R&D creates positive externalities for economic growth. But like other investment goods, there is also a cost involved. Therefore, it is incumbent upon policy makers to determine the appropriate stock of HQP necessary to generate the optimal level of R&D, and to foster an environment conducive to recruiting and retaining immigrant and native-born HQP. From a regional perspective, the capacity to create an environment conducive to attracting and retaining HQP assumes increasing importance as control over immigration continues to devolve to the provincial level and the barriers to interprovincial migration are reduced.