1. How does attribution theory explain some biases?
2. Describe Norman’s seven stages of action, and the pros and cons.
3. Explain Norman’s and Jordan’s approaches to emotional design. What is Kansei engineering?
4. What is mental workload, and how is it measured?
5. What are the three levels of Situation Awareness, some “demons,” and some design principles?
6. What factors affect inattentional blindness? What things distract drivers?
7. How do cognitive illusions affect our logical reasoning?
8. How can cognition be made more rational?
Fritz Heider (1958): What causes are attributed to behaviours?
• _____________: action seen as caused by personality
• ___________: action seen as influenced by environment
___________ ___________ Error (a.k.a. Person Bias or Correspondnce Bias):
- in judgments of others’ actions, people tend to:
• overestimate contribution of _____________ factors, &
• underestimate effect of the _________
_____-________ Discrepancy (a.k.a. Situation Bias):
- in judgments of one’s own actions, people tend to:
• underestimate ____________, &
• overestimate the _________
But when people have difficulty using a machine or device, they tend to blame __________. Why?
- belief that no one else has same problem
- belief that device is ____ to use
Result: incorrect attribution of blame:
- _______ helplessness (Seligman, 1991): every attempt on a task seems to lead to failure--person stops trying
- “______ helplessness” (Norman, 2013): poor design causes person to generalize instances of failure to other, similar tasks
e.g., “I can’t work my VCR; I am no good with technology.”
Seven Stages of Action (Norman, 1988; 2013):
1. form ____ to be achieved
e.g., want best possible mark in course
2. form ______/plan action
e.g., will write term paper
3. specifying ______ sequence
e.g., first choose topic, then get articles to read, etc.
4. _______ action sequence
e.g., pick topic, get articles, read them, etc.
5. ________ state of the system
e.g., typed 12 full pages
6. interpret state of the system as an _______
e.g., minimum 12 page requirement reached
7. _______ outcome to original goal
e.g., it’s not good enough--revise draft
(stage 1: goals, stages 2-4: _________, stages 5-7: __________)
- pros & cons:
separates cognition and ______
can aid ______ (e.g., where is user having difficulty?)
has discrete serial stages--but people have multiple, overlapping/conflicting
_____
neglects the fact that humans have limited ________, get fatigued
individual differences/_________ not taken into account
good for understanding simple tasks, not _______ tasks in complex systems
There has been a consideration beyond just usability to the user __________ (“UX”): a person’s subjective experience when using a product, system, or service.
Don Norman (2004): Emotional Design: Why we love (or hate) everyday things
- three levels of processing:
▸ ________ (or reactive) level:
• hardwired, perceptually based; processes simple stimuli (reflexes)
• has “proto-affect”: immediate positive or negative value
• includes sensory pleasure, aesthetics (e.g., colour, texture)
e.g., riding a rollercoaster (thrill of heights, falling, speed)
▸ ___________ (or routine) level:
• based in unconscious expectations and automatic behaviours
• locus of primitive emotions
• includes usability, performance (e.g., ergonomics)
e.g., playing a nice musical instrument (pleasure of using a good tool effectively; skilled accomplishment)
▸ __________ level:
• based in intellect and higher-order cognitive functions, including metacognition, consciousness, and self-reflection
• has fully fledged, complex emotions
• includes self-identity, socialization (e.g., collective identity)
e.g., enjoyment of literature or art (feeling of shared humanity; understanding symbolism and metaphor)
- the effects of emotion in design should not be neglected; can have powerful impact
• in a negative emotional state, people tend to _____ on a topic, concentrating on details and avoiding distraction (depth-first processing)
• in a moderate-intensity positive emotional state, people are more ________, and overlook minor problems (breadth-first processing)
- the best emotional design allows for a product to be enjoyable at all three levels
• visceral design: __________ and appearance
e.g., the look of Alessi products
• behavioural design: provides good feeling about behavioural interaction/function
e.g., feeling of balance and sharpness of a Shun knife
• reflective design: image, ________, and brand considerations
e.g., reputation and status of Infiniti, Prada, Royal Albert
- pros & cons:
explains the role of cognition in emotional design
criticized as overly reducing the complex nature of design
Patrick W. Jordan (2000): Designing pleasurable products: An introduction to the new human factors
- functionality vs. usability vs. pleasure
- pleasure comprises:
▸ ______-pleasure: applies to one’s body and sensory organs
e.g., shape of telephone handset, texture of pen, toothbrush, new clothes, new car smell
▸ ______-pleasure: applies to one’s cognitive and emotional reactions
e.g., really engaging video game, “killer app” software
▸ _____-pleasure: applies to one’s connection to other people; social identity/interaction
e.g., using social media apps on your smartphone to connect with friends
▸ ____-pleasure: applies to one’s values
e.g., drinking only organic, fair trade, bird-friendly, Rainforest Alliance certified coffee from a recycled, biodegradable cup made by a barista earning a living wage
- pros & cons:
provides framework about pleasure that can aid design process
focuses only on unpleasant-pleasant dimension of products, not a theoretical understanding of emotions
______ (“sensory” or “emotional”) engineering
- created by Mitsuo Nagamachi (1989; 2002; 2010)
- development methodology that translates customers’ feelings and emotions about products to design solutions and concrete design elements
- explicitly relates emotions to product design, to create a more satisfactory experience
- case study: Mazda MX-5 Miata
• ____-_____ concept design goal: unification of the human-machine unit (HMU)
• next level comprised of “tight feeling,” “direct feeling,” “speedy feeling,” and “communicative”
• each concept further developed into more specific, concrete design parameters
• surveyed young peoples’ attitudes and driving behaviours
• observed behaviour of young male drivers
• data analyzed to create functional, usable, and pleasurable designs matching design parameters
e.g., gear shifter is 9.5 cm, conveying optimal feeling of sportiness and control
e.g., used sound frequency analysis to determine young peoples’ preference for exhaust sound, and tried over 100 vent pipe designs to create the right “exhaust note,” which suggests the right time to shift
______ workload: feeling of mental effort or level of use of human operator’s limited resources
- as task demand increases, reserve resources decrease
- when ___________ resources are exceeded, further increases in task demand will reduce performance
- new aircraft are analyzed in terms of mental workload
- is one of the most widely used concepts in HF/E
Measuring workload:
• ________ analysis: measure amount of time spent on task relative to time available; shows how time use changes during course of task
• _______ task measure: change nature of main task; record performance changes
• _________ task measure: give secondary task; measure performance as primary task changed
• __________ measures: self-reports of users
e.g., NASA Task Load Index (NASA-TLX)
• physiological measures: monitor EEG or use brain imaging to determine physiological correlates of mental work
Implications for design (Resnick, 2014):
- important information should have higher sensory salience
e.g., Enhanced Ground Proximity Warning System in aircraft has auditory alarm, and visual and spoken messages
- reduce confusions/maximize discriminating features
e.g., in-vehicle GPS navigation systems with graphical displays take the longest time to process, and recall scores are lowest
- tasks allocated to workers must be within their capabilities
• too much: ________/mental fatigue
• too little: ______/dehumanizing/missed events
• determining the “redline” of overload or underload is difficult
- “the perception of the elements in the environment within a volume of space and time, the comprehension of their meaning and the projection of their status in the near future” (Mica R. Endsley, 1988, p.97)
- _______ what is going on around you
- formal definition has three ascending levels:
Level 1 SA: __________ of elements in the environment
- stimuli must be detectable and identifiable
Level 2 SA: _____________ of the current situation
- encompasses how people combine, interpret, store, and retain information
Level 3 SA: __________ of future status
- determines decisions made and actions performed
- denotes those who have the highest-level understanding of the situation (experts)
- e.g., CF-18 Hornet fighter pilot in combat zone:
Level 1: aircraft noticed on radar at five o’clock position; SAM (surface-to-air missile) detected visually at one o’clock position
Level 2: aircraft recognized to have enemy profile, but is a slow Su-25 Rook (a.k.a. “Frogfoot”); SAM cannot be identified: may be radar- or IR-guided
Level 3: pilot predicts that lighting afterburners will allow him to outrun enemy aircraft; dropping bundles of chaff and flares should work as countermeasures against unknown SAM
Then, pilot makes a decision and performs an action.
- SA is the main precursor for ________ ______ and thus performance
- SA can be seen as the current state of the ______ _____
- SA model includes goal-driven (e.g., via mental models) and data-driven (e.g., environmental stimuli) processing
- SA originated in studying aircraft piloting; now also used in domains like weather forecasting, power plant operations, and driving
- assessed with Situation Awareness Global Assessment Technique (Endsley, 2000):
• SAGAT uses dynamic simulations of task environment
• simulation stopped randomly
• people asked questions at each SA level
- SA “demons” (Endsley & Jones, 2011):
• attentional _________ (a.k.a. cognitive tunneling): under stress, attention becomes focused on a single stimulus
e.g., Eastern flight 401: debate over broken indicator light vs. broken landing gear caused crash into Florida everglades
• requisite ______ ____: working memory is limited
e.g., ATC at LAX forgot aircraft was on runway when she assigned another one to land
• workload, anxiety, fatigue, and other stressors (_____): make information processing more error prone
• data ________: SA affected by organization and display of data
• misplaced ________: too much competition for attention
e.g., “Las Vegas Strip” phenomenon
• __________ _____: too many functions to know them all
- only 20% of people could properly operate their VCR
- 50% of product returns are in full working order, but customers can’t figure out how to operate the devices (Den Ouden, 2006)
• errant ______ ______: incomplete understanding (due to use of modes of lack of standardization) is problematic--may not even be noticed
- errors arise when pilots switch aircraft
• out-of-the-____ syndrome: too much reliance on automation
e.g., crash in Detroit: misconfigured flaps/slats; automated takeoff configuration and warning system failed
- categories of SA-oriented design principles (include 50 specific principles):
• _______: incorporate knowledge of SA into design
e.g., organize information around goals
• _________: increase confidence in information
e.g., explicitly identify missing information
• __________: minimize task complexity
e.g., just say no to feature creep--or even reduce features
• alarms: reduce mental workload due to alarms
e.g., make alarms unambiguous
• automation: automate only if necessary
e.g., keep the operator in control and in the loop
• _____________: support shared SA
e.g., build a common picture to support team operations
- pros & cons
used to evaluate system/interface designs, and assess ________ techniques
criticized as just an aggregate term for other cognitive processes: perception and working memory
(but SA also depends on long-term memory knowledge)
is SA the process of obtaining awareness or the product of awareness (or both)?
(situation assessment results in situation awareness)
• in 2020, distracted driving killed 3,142 people and injured over 300,000 in the U.S., at a cost of USD$100 billion (NHTSA, 2022a)
• more than 9% of crashes are caused by cell phone use (handheld/hands-free/texting) (NHTSA, 2022b)
• glances away from the road longer than 2 seconds more than double odds of crash
• 30% of inexperienced drivers glance away longer than 2 seconds (e.g., when interacting with radio or cell phone)
• 20% of drivers send or read text messages while driving; 66% of drivers age 18 to 24
Categories of distractions (Ranney et al., 2000):
• visual: e.g., looking at a map
• audible: e.g., listening to music
• physical: e.g., adjusting stereo controls
• _________: e.g., thinking about dinner
Cell phones involve every category of distraction.
Different kinds of distractions lead to different kinds of problems:
- visual distractions cause problems with steering and lateral movements, like staying in your own lane
- _________ distractions lead to less longitudinal vehicle control: difficulty maintaining proper distance from the vehicle ahead of you--but lateral control improves
(Why? Drivers keep their eyes on the centre of the road more, perhaps decreasing their cognitive load.)
Inattentional blindness: stimulus that is presented, but is not attended, is not perceived (a.k.a. “looked-but-didn’t-see” problem)
Simons & Chabris (1999):
- showed participants a video of two teams of three basketball players
- task: count how many times the players wearing white pass the basketball
- 46% of observers ______ ___ _______
Most & Astur (2007):
- participants in a computer-based driving simulator
- task: before arriving at an intersection, looked for a yellow arrow indicating which way they should turn (and ignore blue arrows)
- just as they entered the intersection, a motorcycle unexpectedly crossed their path and stopped
- results:
• when motorcycle was yellow, 93% of drivers noticed it and avoided a collision
• when it was blue, 36% of them hit it (2 failed to apply the brakes at all!)
- while talking on a cell phone, participants were less likely to notice objects (e.g., pedestrians, cars, signs, etc.), even when _______ directly at them (Strayer & Drews, 2007)
Factors that affect attentional blindness (Green et al., 2008):
1. conspicuity
- _______ conspicuity: increases with greater contrast, size, and flicker (bottom-up processing)
- cognitive conspicuity: you can decide what to attend to; meaningful things capture your attention (top-down processing)
e.g., noticing your name spoken at a noisy cocktail party
2. mental workload and task interference
- greater attentional demand
e.g., counting bounce passes vs. aerial passes resulted in 20% lower detection of _______
- _________ tasks: some kinds interfere less than others with primary task
e.g., walking and chewing gum vs. walking and juggling
- low work load and automation: too low mental workload causes disengagement with the task
e.g., pilots’ increasing reliance on advanced automation leads to poorer manual flying skills or “airmanship” (FAA, 2016; Haslbeck & Hoermann, 2016)
3. expectation
- expertise: attention may not be drawn to irrelevant stimuli (or, it may be!)
e.g., basketball players were more likely to detect the _______ (62% vs. 38% of nonexperts)
- confirmation bias: you see what you expect to see
e.g., in April, 2006 rising waters made a ford through the River Avon near Luckington temporarily impassible. Every day for the next 2 weeks, at least one vehicle--relying on GPS navigation--drove past the warning signs and into the _____
4. ________
- varies from person to person; varies over time; affected by drugs, alcohol, and fatigue
- automatic processes
e.g., pilot flying an unfamiliar aircraft increased fuel flow during an engine fire, because controls were opposite to those of the familiar aircraft
 |
NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 2006a; 2006b): 100-Car Naturalistic Driving Study |
- over the course of a year, 241 volunteer drivers in Northern Virginia/Washington, DC were studied
- cars/SUVs were outfitted with video-enhanced electronic data recorders
- collected 42,300 hours of data on driving over 3 million km
- results:
• 82 crashes and collisions (any contact between the participant’s vehicle and another vehicle, fixed object, pedestrian, cyclist, or animal)
• 761 near-crashes (rapid, severe evasive manoeuvre to avoid a crash)
• 8,295 critical incidents (involving evasive manoeuvre of less magnitude than a near-crash)
- major findings:
• drowsiness/fatigue increases risk of crash/near-crash by a factor of 4×
• ________ almost triples the risk of a crash
• drivers who are distracted are more likely to be involved in a crash/near-crash; they are unable to predict when it is safe to direct their attention away from driving
• nearly 80% of crashes (65% of near-crashes) involved some driver distraction within 3 seconds before the event
• most common distraction: cell phone (_______ is more dangerous than talking or listening, but occurs less often; all three activities caused similar number of crashes)
• factors increasing crash/near-crash risk:
- reaching for a moving object: 9×
- looking at an external object: 3.7×
- reading: 3×
- applying makeup: 3×
Redelmeier & Tibshirani (1997):
- identified collisions in Toronto having significant damage
- of 5,890 drivers, 1,064 had cell phone; consent & billing records obtained from 699
- ___ drivers made a call up to 10 minutes before the collision
- ___× greater relative risk when using a cell phone, compared to similar interval on the day before
- if blood-alcohol level is 50% above the limit, relative risk = 10
David L. Strayer et al. (2001):
- used Crown Victoria® driving simulator
- while talking on a cell phone, participants were _____ as likely to miss simulated traffic signals compared to controls (7.0% vs. 3.4%)
- drove as if ________
- no advantage for _____-____ vs. hand-held phone
- performance not disrupted by listening to _____ or _____ on tape
- also found by Transport Canada (2002)
- and by Parkes & Hooijmeijer (2000): significant deterioration in _________ _________ in hands-free phone condition (vs. no-phone control)
Drews, Pasupathi, & Strayer (2008):
- measured how well drivers followed task instructions (take a particular turn-off) during simulated driving
- compared conversing on a cell phone vs. conversing with a passenger (vs. control)
- talked about close-call situations they experienced
- results (number of participants):
correct exit |
missed exit |
|
|---|---|---|
cell phone |
12 |
12 |
passenger |
21 |
3 |
control |
46 |
2 |
- how is talking to a passenger different from talking to someone on a cell phone?
• it’s easier to hear a passenger, so less attention is required
• passenger conversations make more references to traffic; this creates a shared SA, mitigating the potential negative effects of conversing on driving
• social demands: there is pressure to keep a conversation going and not stop talking to concentrate on driving
- cell phone-caused driving deficits are not reduced by practice (Cooper & Strayer, 2008)
Olson et al. (2017):
- naturalistic study of long-haul commercial truck drivers
- text messaging results in 23.2× greater risk of crash or near-crash event
Legislation:
- all Canadian provinces have laws against use of handheld cell phones and/or text messaging
- Japan bans all cell phone use while driving
- almost all US states have some form of legislation against hand-held cell phone use and texting while _______
- however, fines are low
e.g., base fine is USD$20 for first offence, USD$50 for subsequent offences in California (vs. $287 + 3 demerit points in Alberta)
laws do not reduce collisions (IIHS/HLDI, 2009)
• before the ban in New York, 2.3% of drivers used phones while driving
• immediately after the ban, the number dropped to 1.1%, but two years later was up to 2.1% (Sundeen, 2007)
- long-term __________ requires publicized enforcement (legislation + enforcement + education campaigns) (McCartt et al., 2006)
Can technology help? Or is it just a _______ effect?
Cell phone safety features:
- Do Not Disturb While Driving mode for iPhones
• engages when vehicle’s Bluetooth connection detected
• allows turn-by-turn directions and hands-free calls, but disables texting
- Android Auto app has do not disturb while driving setting
- problem: these features are optional
- worse problem: revenge effects
• Apple CarPlay and Android Auto allow drivers to use apps and phone functions on in-vehicle display
• these functions may encourage more use of ___________ distracting interactions
• research shows that they cause moderate distraction, visual and cognitive demand, and interaction time (Strayer et al., 2018)
• built-in infotainment systems are even worse, causing very high levels of distraction
BMW iDrive
- i=“intuitive”; introduced for 2002 model year
“The sole purpose of the iDrive is to eliminate driver ___________.” -- Gordon Keil, BMW of North America
- components:
• control _______: next to instrument panel
• driving zone: functions for driving and safety
e.g., directional signals, windshield wipers, cruise control
• comfort zone: frequently used systems that require frequent adjustments
e.g., lights, climate control, seat position
- controlled by conventional switches on dashboard/centre console
• __________: manages over 700 other infrequently accessed functions
- large knob in console between front seats: combo rotary/pushbutton/slide control with force feedback
- to change functions, push console knob; twist knob to scroll through menus; click button on knob to select functions
- knob: 8 categories corresponding to compass positions: communication, car, drive, help, entertainment, configuration, climate control, information
- simplified version has only 4
- different types of haptic ________ given for different functions
- problems:
• obscure abbreviations (e.g., “Auto P,” “DSC/DTC,” and “PDC PIC”)
• more difficult for inexperienced users to use
• slow response times: require additional attention; experienced users make more errors
• poor conceptual model
Driver Focus-Telematics Working Group (2006):
- membership includes members of the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers (a trade group that represents 12 major vehicle manufacturers), the Society of Automotive Engineers, the NHTSA, and Transport Canada
- NHTSA challenged industry to respond to concerns about crashes due to electronic distractions
- 24 principles for minimizing driver distraction via efficient ______ (do not apply to collision avoidance systems or voice-activated devices):
• ____________
e.g., physical location should not obstruct driver’s field of view
• information ____________
e.g., use standard icons or symbols
• ___________ with displays and controls
e.g., feedback should be timely and clearly perceptible
• system behaviour
e.g., lock out distracting functions while driving
• information about the system
e.g., instructions should be correct and simple
Other initiatives include:
• Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS): integrated in-vehicle systems that augment drivers' abilities, increasing safety and effectiveness
e.g., adaptive cruise control, automatic parking, forward collision warning, etc.
• Intelligent Transportations Systems (ITS): aid transport and traffic management to increase safety, coordination, and efficiency of transportation networks
e.g., red light cameras, variable speed limits, Intervehicular Information System (car-to-car communication), etc.
Cognitive illusions systematically, involuntarily lead to perception, judgment, or memory that deviates from objective reality; are difficult to avoid (Pöhl, 2017).
• ______________: overestimating the accuracy of your knowledge and judgments
Q: Is ________ a liqueur or a precious stone? How confident are you?
Langer (1975):
- participants played a card game which involved drawing for the high card
- played against confederate of the researcher
- independent variable: personality of the opponent
• “dapper”: outgoing, appeared confident, and dressed in stylish clothes
• “schnook”: shy, nervous, awkward, and dressed in ill-fitting clothes
- dapper opponent was viewed as more _________ (4.8 vs. 3.2 out of 6)
- participants bet less money against the dapper opponent (11.0¢), and bet more against the schnook (16.3¢; maximum bet was 25¢)
• ____________ heuristic: estimating probability of an event based on the ease with which examples come to mind
Q: Are there more words that begin with k or that have k as the third letter?
A: 69% of participants chose the former; however, there are 3 times more words that have k as the third letter (Tversky & Kahneman, 1973)
• ________ correlation: the perception of a relationship where none exists (or vice-versa)
Ward & Jenkins (1965):
- is cloud-seeding worthwhile?
- data given for 50 days
rain |
no rain |
|
|---|---|---|
seed |
a |
b |
no seed |
c |
d |
- data were random, yet participants perceived a relationship; participants focused on a and d
Why is this so?
• ____________ bias: seeking evidence that confirms your beliefs--even to the exclusion of contradictory information
Wason (1966):
Q: Assuming that each card has a letter on one side and a number on the other, which card(s) must be turned over to test this statement?
“If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number on the other side.”
E |
J |
6 |
7 |
- results: 33% chose positive evidence alone; only 4% chose positive and negative evidence
• ______________: people are better with concrete than abstract problems
Johnson-Laird, Legrenzi, & Legrenzi (1972):
You work in a post office, sorting envelopes. Assuming each envelope has a stamp, which envelope(s) must be turned over to test this rule?
“If an envelope is sealed, it must have a 50 lire stamp.”
- results: 87.5% of Italians--who were familiar with the rule--chose positive and negative evidence
• _________ bias: tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it
Fischhoff & Beyth (1975):
- before Nixon’s historic visit to China in 1972, participants were asked to assign probabilities to outcomes, like:
“The USA will establish a permanent diplomatic mission [in China]”
“President Nixon will meet Mao at least once”
“President Nixon will announce that his trip was successful”
- after the visit, were unexpectedly asked to recall the probabilities they gave
- for the things that actually happened, 76% gave higher probability estimates after
- for things that didn’t happen, only 57% gave higher estimates after
- paper is titled, “I knew it would happen”
• __________________ heuristic: judging probabilities based on how they seem to resemble particular prototypes
Q: “What is the minimum number of persons there should be in a meeting room for there to be a better than 50% chance that two of them have the same birthday?”
A: __ (__ people increases probability to 90%)
It’s not (365 ÷ 2) + 1 = 183
• _________ & adjustment: an initial estimate or quantity (______) can affect subsequent decisions (adjustment)
Wansink, Kent, & Hoch (1998):
- field experiments done in different grocery stores
- exp’t. 1 tested anchoring provided by multiple-unit prices on various items
e.g., “on sale: 6 cans for $3” (vs. “on sale: 50¢ each”)
- results: multiple-unit prices resulted in a 32% increase in sales
- exp’t. 2 tested anchoring provided by purchase limits on cans of soup
e.g., “no limit” vs. “limit of 4” vs. “limit of 12”
- results:
no limit |
limit of 4 |
limit of 12 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
purchases per buyer |
3.3 |
3.5 |
7.0 |
- conclusion: decisions about quantity can be affected by _________
(remember, your term paper is 12 pages minimum!)
• _______: judgments can be affected by the way information is presented
- ________ frame: one thing is trivialized or exaggerated by comparison with something else
e.g., “For less than the cost of a cup of coffee per day, you can feed a child for a month.”
- _____ frame: draws attention to a specific aspect of an issue
e.g., per 125 mL serving, Breyers’ Smooth & DreamyTM chocolate ice cream (½ the fat!) has the same calories (130) and more sugar than regular Double Churn ice cream (16 g vs. 15 g of sugars)
Levin & Gaeth (1988):
- gave identical samples of ground beef to two groups of tasters
- frame: sample described as either a) 75% lean, or b) 25% fat
- group a) rated their sample less greasy, of higher quality, and better tasting than group b)
- conclusion: we prefer alternatives that emphasize the ________ (information that shows potential gain, not loss)
• ____-____________ bias: tendency to continue following a predetermined plan or course of action, despite contraindications due to a change in original conditions (Dismukes et al., 2007)
e.g., pilots continuing along their original flight plan, even though changing inclement weather conditions have made it inappropriate
- found to occur in 11.1% of fatal aviation crashes; 4th most common primary causal factor (Khatwa & Helmreich, 1998/1999)
- related to the ____-____ fallacy: tendency to continue investing more time, effort, or money in a decision one is committed to, even if the costs outweigh the expected benefits
e.g., buying a run-down car, then paying for repairs beyond its value
- likely influenced by overconfidence, anchoring to the original plan, and availability in memory of past success
- may be exacerbated by fatigue and high workload, which reduces strategic thinking in favour of simply reacting to events
- also linked to poor monitoring, caused by automation that does not guide attention appropriately
e.g., faulty airspeed indicator led pilot of Air France flight 447 to steeply increase angle of attack, ironically causing a stall and subsequent crash
How to make people more rational (Wickens et al., 2021):
• practice? (no)
• _________? (depends on domain)
• ________?
- often ambiguous
- often delayed
- processed selectively
• proceduralization: turn decision making into an algorithm
• _________: target specific aspects of decision-making flaws
e.g., explaining why you may not be correct reduces overconfidence
• __________: software-based decision support system (DSS)
- may appropriately display multiple sources of information
- expert systems can aid in diagnosis, and provide recommendations for choice of action
• redesign: people are fallible; design must take this into consideration
Malmstrom (1998):
- refrigerator is greatest energy-consuming appliance
- how to make people upgrade?
• ___ credits/rebates: not immediate enough
• public _________: knowledge vs. behaviour gap
• ____/regulations: immediate, grudging compliance
• ________: must be immediate